Before sinking into the despair brought by being knocked out of the Carling Cup by Southampton, let's pause to remember just how good the weekend just gone was. Things suddenly started looking very bright again, with Özil looking like the player we hoped we'd signed, a spectacular (Arsenal-style?!) collapse of Man U, Lampard scoring against Chelsea to cost them two points, Liverpool losing, Spuds losing, Everton losing and Man City dropping points. This demonstrates just how quickly things change in football, with it difficult to see any positives for the season ahead after our defeat to Dortmund last Tuesday night.
Such polarised highs and lows are reminiscent of last season and provoke all too familiar emotions. It is very hard to remain objective in reviewing our performances, when the temptation is to extrapolate the latest high or low and project it onto the remainder of the season. This inevitably leads to either unavoidable doom, or to unrealistic hopes of success, and rarely retains any sense of balance, reality or perspective. Having said that, many Arsenal fans feel that the likely 3rd or 4th place finish is not good enough, and deserves our feelings of disappointment and impending doom. On the other hand, many others would argue that finishing in the Champions League places year on year, while managing the budget restrictions imposed by a stadium move, is a remarkable achievement. There certainly seems to be a lot of disagreement among Arsenal fans as to what are reasonable expectations, given our resources, and what constitutes a successful season.
This seemed to be particularly the case last season, where Arsenal signed Özil, and topped the league for long periods, giving the fans much hope of a return to former glory days, and going some way to satisfy the demand for big-name signings. This was quickly followed by some hideous and humiliating defeats and even a top 4 position became in doubt. By the end of the season, we finished 4th, with 79 points, and won the FA Cup... but was this season a success?
Never before has my mind shifted so much during a season, in terms of whether I thought we were doing well or not. One minute it seemed very promising, with everything moving in the right direction, and the next I was left wondering whether Wenger was the right man to take us forward. The humiliating defeats certainly took their toll - there's nothing worse than having to face a smug Chelsea fan having just been spanked 0-6 the day before. Or a Liverpool fan, having been spanked 1-5. 3-6 against Man City and 0-3 against Everton weren't too clever either. Months on and these results still make me feel angry, and I suspect that these will stay with me for a good while longer yet.
In order to avoid such severe ups and downs, I think it's worth considering what would constitute a successful 2014-15 season for Arsenal. This will help to retain some perspective through the difficult patches, and keep a lid on disproportionately high expectations when things seem to be going our way. Or maybe I should be embracing this as a key part of what being an Arsenal fan is all about.
Most of what I've mentioned so far is in terms of on-field success:
- Premier League position
- Premier League points total
- Victories/Defeats in key games (against the big teams (and Spuds))
- Silverware
- Getting through the Champions League group stages
Most of these can then be thought of either in absolute terms or relative to the season before. e.g. A third place finish this season may not constitute absolute success this season, but it would represent improvement on last season. I feel that improvement on the season before is a key factor to consider when deciding whether a season has been successful.
It is also worth considering the underlying structure and resources of the club when considering our success:
- Financial strength
- Debt
- Squad harmony
- Stadium capacity
- Youth development
- Training facilities
- Medical staff
Our financial strength also provides a context for our on-field success. For example, some may argue that it's a bigger achievement to finish in 4th place with no net spend on players than to finish 2nd having spent £100m. Others may argue that, by finishing in 2nd, you have at least been genuinely challenging for the title.
Most fans are in agreement that Wenger brought success in his first 5-6 years at the club, winning Premier League titles and FA Cups, but there is much disagreement about whether or not the following 9-year trophy drought was necessary in securing the club's long-term future. For me, there is no doubt that, in terms on on-field success, those 9 years represented failure. There is also no doubt that in terms of financial strength, stadium capacity and debt, we have made greater improvement in those 9 years than any other club. It is only over the last year, however, that our on-field success has improved, with winning the FA Cup, and that other underlying factors have improved, with the appointment of Shad Forsythe on the medical staff, and with squad harmony seemingly approaching levels of former glory.
So where does this leave us in terms of targets for the season ahead?
To improve on last season, we need to achieve more than 79 points in the league and get 3rd place or better. We also need to win something again, be it the FA Cup, Premier League or Champions League. And, most importantly (for me), we also need to eliminate the humiliating results. With our improved financial strength and resources, the expectations of Arsenal fans has rightly increased, meaning that just finishing 4th is no longer good enough, and the pressure on Wenger to deliver success is much greater.
Wenger has 3 years left. Two things that I would love to see him achieve in that time are Champions League glory and the retention of a Premier League title. These would be incredible achievements and would leave Wenger's success in no doubt. These are big dreams but, with our improvements over the last season or two, on many fronts, it finally feels like we ought to start dreaming big again.
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