So, right on cue for our most important game of the season so far, Giroud breaks his foot and won't play again until the New Year. Alexis started as the central striker in our last game against Everton but was replaced at half-time by Giroud, with the latter proving to be much more effective in the role. It has been clear for well over a year now that we need backup for Giroud in the squad, but it's still unclear what Wenger's plans are. In such a high stakes game, we will see what Wenger considers to be his strongest available eleven, and therefore gain insight into what his plans have been for this eventuality.
The Besiktas game is high stakes for two reasons:
1) Money. This game could be worth up to £34million to our football club, if you take into account prize money, gate receipts and TV money for the extra games. That's £3million for each of the three extra home games in the group stage, plus potentially an extra £25million should we progress further in the competition.
2) Champions League football and, in particular, the draw this competition is for potential transfer targets between now and the end of the transfer window. It is a strong possibility that some players are waiting to see that Arsenal will be playing Champions League football this season before sanctioning a move to the club.
I'm fascinated to see whether Wenger chooses Alexis or Sanogo to lead the line in tonight's game. Wenger chose Alexis in the recent game against Everton, which perhaps makes him the favourite, but this didn't work very well at all. Wenger has previously trusted Sanogo in some pretty important games, most notably the game against Bayern Munich last season, so it's not inconceivable that he will be trusted with the role again. What is clear is that, whoever is selected, the team needs to be set up in such a way that doesn't leave the front man isolated, as Alexis was against Everton.
My thoughts are that Wenger is likely to choose Sanogo as his front man, provided he is fully fit. Sanogo played as the front man in all of our pre-season games and was particularly impressive in the game against Benfica, scoring four goals. Admittedly, he was very poor when he started as the front man against Crystal Palace, but I don't see why Wenger would play Sanogo (and not Alexis) as the front man throughout the whole of pre-season, if he isn't serious about using him there in the season ahead. Also, with striking options short, this allows both Sanogo and Alexis to play, sharing the goal-scoring load and allowing for them to support each other, with less isolation.
I suspect that, with Ramsey suspended, Ozil will revert to his number 10 role behind the strikers, which will again help to fill the void between midfield and attack. On the left I would expect to see either Cazorla or Oxlade-Chamberlain, although Campbell may also be involved as he would provide extra goal-scoring threat. Perhaps the same argument could be made for playing Podolski, especially now that Wenger has confirmed that he is staying at the club.
With injuries to Gibbs and Arteta, Flamini and Monreal will be in the team. I would also expect to see Koscielny back in the starting line-up alongside Mertesacker, having been rested against Everton. While Chambers has been hugely impressive so far this season, Koscielny and Mertesacker is undoubtedly our strongest centre half pairing, and will be less risky in such an important game.
Predicted starting eleven (4-2-3-1):
Szczesny; Debuchy, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal; Flamini, Wilshere; Alexis, Ozil, Cazorla; Sanogo
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