7 September 2014

Transfer Review: Ins > outs in best transfer window for a while

#WelcomeWelbeck


It's times like these that I become so much more aware of how my Arsenal bias, and hatred for anything to do with Man Utd, affects my views and opinions. I've spent the last few years trying to justify the viewpoint that Welbeck isn't any good, and then he goes and signs for us, forcing me to rethink my opinions in a more objective (or pro-Arsenal) way! While Danny isn't the high-profile striker of the calibre of Cavani or, dare I say it, Falcao, he does have some qualities that will add to our striking options and will provide genuine competition and cover for Giroud.

I feel that for a transfer window to be successful, the squad needs to be stronger after the changes than it was before, and weaknesses in the squad need to be addressed. Before comparing the ins and outs of the transfer window, I think it's worth reminding ourselves of the squad's weakness from last season, which was our results against the big teams. There were several qualities lacking in our squad which culminated in some catastrophic games, including:
  • Lack of pace (particularly with Walcott injured)
  • Lack of direct runners, willing to commit defenders and take them on
  • Lack of cover for Giroud
  • Lack of physical presence and pace in defensive midfield
  • Lack of cover at centre back
My main memories from the bad games are ones of teams playing a high defensive line against us, knowing that we had no pace in attack to punish them. This compressed midfield, which meant that our creative midfielders struggled to keep possession. When possession turned over we were particularly vulnerable on the counter attack, with pushing players forward, and we had little recovery pace available in defensive midfield.

While addressing these weaknesses was vital, there are some other factors which also contribute to whether the transfer window was a success: Squad cohesion and continuity, Squad Age, Value for money etc.

Ins and Outs:

A detailed breakdown of our transfers over the past few years can be found in the 'Transfer History' tab to the right, or you can click here.

The most significant transfers out of the club were replaced, pretty much, like for like, with an extra couple of transfers in:

Out
Age
In
Age
Comment
Fabianski
28
Ospina
26
Like for like replacement. Fabianski started to come good last season, and was an exemplary professional, but Ospina is the more experienced goalkeeper, playing regularly for Colombia. Ospina is 3 years younger.
Sagna
31
Debuchy
29
Like for like replacement, but Sagna was also our 4th choice centre back. Debuchy, while he can’t play at centre back, is preferred to Sagna for France. Debuchy is also 3 years younger.
Vermaelen
28
Chambers
19
Similar roles in squad. Vermaelen was perhaps a stronger individual defender, but Chambers seems to be more alert and aware of his position within the whole defence. Both players are prone to mistakes and diving into tackles recklessly but Chambers, at just 19, is likely to overcome this with experience. Chambers is able to play right back and centre back effectively, and is 9 years younger than Vermaelen.


Welbeck
23
You could argue that Welbeck is a replacement for Bendtner but, given that Bendtner played nearly no part in last season, it is more like an additional player. Welbeck provides strong cover for Giroud, in that he has many similar qualities, like Strength and good hold-up play. However, while Giroud may be a better finisher, Welbeck offers pace, a willingness to run at defenders, and the ability to punish teams who play a high defensive line by making runs behind the defence.


Sanchez
25
Sanchez is the star signing of this transfer window, and goes a long way to addressing the weaknesses evident in our squad last season. He is able to play in any of the front three positions and offers pace, hard-work, creativity, power, directness and a willingness to run both at defenders and behind defences. At the start of the Summer, given the choice of one player for us to sign, I would have chosen Sanchez. He has plenty of experience but at 25, he is only just entering his prime.

There have also been some less significant transfers out: Jenkinson (on loan, age 22), Bendtner (age 26), Miyaichi (on loan, age 21), Viviano (returned from loan, age 28), Eisfeld (age 21), Kallstrom (returned from loan, age 32)

Also, some players who have been out on loan have now been sold permanently: Park (age 29), Djourou (age 27), Miquel (age 21)

Some of these exits are compensated for by the return of Joel Campbell (age 22), Coquelin (age 23) and Martinez (GK, in place of Viviano, age 22) from their loans, the promotion of Bellerin (RB, in place of Jenkinson, age 19), and the potential return of Diaby from injury (!).

So, numbers wise, we have fewer players than before, but with the promotion of some younger players this is not a problem. Quality wise, Welbeck and Alexis (and Campbell, too) are a step up from the players that they replace in the squad. More importantly, these are two players that really do address some of the weaknesses of the squad from last season. Both Alexis and Welbeck are quick, powerful, prepared to run at defenders as well as making runs behind, and between them they provide good cover for Giroud. These improvements have cost us an estimated £37.4m (see Transfer History for more detail), but ~£15m of this was to replace Sagna and Fabianski, who left us for free. Generally, I think we got very good value with our transfer business.

It is clear that we have a much stronger squad than last season in terms of the range of qualities the players offer, but we have failed to address our weakness in defensive midfield and our cover in defence. We are arguably even weaker in defence as, while Chambers can cover both right back and centre back, we only have three good centre backs, whereas last season Sagna was a reasonable 4th choice centre back. However, Chambers is a stronger back-up right back than Jenkinson was. An overview of our squad depth can be found in the 'Squad Overview' tab to the right, or you can click here.

The age of our squad has also reduced by 30 years: The total age of Ospina, Debuchy, Chambers, Alexis, Welbeck, Campbell, Martinez, Bellerin and Coquelin is 208, whereas the total age of Fabianski, Sagna, Vermaelen, Bendtner, Viviano, Jenkinson, Eisfeld, Kallstrom and Miyaichi is 238. While 30 years sounds like a significant reduction, across a 25-man squad the squad's age will obviously increase by 25 years every year. Effectively, we have only slightly reduced the squad's age.

In terms of squad demographic, we have added two more English players in Chambers and Welbeck, but also added some South American players in Alexis and Ospina - last season our whole squad, apart from Miyaichi, was European.

Overall, I'm pleased with this transfer window, but would hope for Wenger to have his eye on a defender and defensive midfielder in January to complete the squad. This does, however, feel like the most complete squad that we've had in a long time - Wenger's challenge now is to find a system which allows all of our best players to contribute effectively to the team.

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