20 September 2014

Finances looking good ahead of Villa game - predicted line-up

#AVFCvAFC

We've just announced profits of £4.7m for the year ending 31 May 2014, with turnover increasing to over £300m. I'm intrigued that, while profits are just £4.7m, our cash reserves have increased from £119.6m to £173.3m. In delving deeper, this seems to be because we received payments for transfers that had previously been agreed, so this increase in cash didn't count as profit. Also, we have credit arrangements on some player purchases, meaning that some of this cash is already spent, and therefore misleading.

A massive positive is that the money made from player sales reduced by £40m, and our wage bill increased by £12m, and yet we still made a profit. This is because our operating profit from football increased from £25.2m to £62.1m. This means that we are able to sustain our increased spending on players and wages, allowing us to compete for the very best players, without needing to sell any of our own. It's also worth noting that the group's net debt reduced from £93.2m to £32.6m. Interestingly, to further improve our financial situation, we now require more on-field success, in order to attract and negotiate better sponsorship deals. As on-field success becomes more and more important in improving our financial situation further, perhaps the board will make it a greater priority than before.

The full financial report can be found here.

The Dortmund loss in midweek was massively disappointing, mainly due to how thoroughly we were outplayed, rather than the result itself. 2-0 flattered us, and this was the toughest game of our group, so there is still plenty of hope that we can progress. Often it is a case of trying to win your home games, and then any other points gained are a bonus. After that performance, though, it's hard to imagine us beating Dortmund in the return match, even if it is at the Emirates. Let's, however, maintain some perspective; while it was the performance that was so disappointing in this game, it was only three days after the Man City game, where our performance seemed so promising, with a very similar line-up and formation.

Many have complained about Bellerin starting the Dortmund game, as it highlights Wenger's irresponsibility in the transfer window, in not signing more defensive minded players, and in letting Jenkinson go out on loan. It's worth noting here that with Debuchy and Chambers, we are stronger in the right back position than we were last season, and Jenkinson is injured anyway. To be fair, not many teams have a third choice right-back who is better than Bellerin, and he actually played quite well in what was an immensely high pressure debut. Our deficit is actually in central defence and defensive midfield, where we able to field our first choice players, in Koscielny, Mertesacker and Arteta. I feel that we desperately need backup at centre back and, particularly in games like this, Arteta isn't quite good enough to be first choice.

Others are blaming Özil for the defeat but, while he didn't play well, he certainly wasn't the only one. Suggestions that he is wasted on the left seem slightly naïve, given that he's actually spent as much time during the matches in the centre and on the right. They also ignore that he was positioned on the left successfully throughout the whole of Germany's World Cup winning campaign.

All of the negativity following the Dortmund game makes this Villa game all the more crucial, and it doesn't help us that they are in their best run of form for years! Second in the league, with 10 points from 4 games, having beaten Liverpool last weekend, Villa will be full of confidence going into this game. I can't say I'm looking forward to Agbonlahor vs. Mertesacker either; Koscielny will need to have a good game. At least keeping possession should be easier than in Dortmund, which should offer us some security. Another plus is that this is an opportunity to put the Dortmund game behind us, and get back on track.

Predicted starting eleven: Szczesny; Chambers, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs; Arteta; Alexis, Ramsey, Wilshere, Özil; Welbeck

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